How it works
Projecting the S&P 500’s next turn: how the Kellan Projection works
The Kellan Projection (%K) is a forward projection method that charts the path price is likely to follow, marks when the next peak or trough is due, and wraps that path in an expected range and an outer extreme. It looks about six months ahead for the S&P 500 and other markets, and it feeds a daily Net Bias call on how much exposure to carry.
By Kellan Williams, founder of W Analytics · Updated September 29, 2026
The problem
Most market-timing tools look backward
Moving averages, RSI, MACD and the stochastic oscillator all summarize price that has already printed. By the time they signal a turn, the turn is usually behind you. The Kellan Projection works the other way around: it draws the likely path ahead of price, so the next turn is on your chart before it forms.
Lagging indicators
Describe what already happened. Useful context, but they react after the move.
Opinions and targets
Forecasts in words, rarely dated, rarely scored after the fact.
A forward path
A dated projection of the path, the next turn and the range, drawn on the chart and checkable later.
Reading the chart
Four things the projection shows you
The projected path
A line drawn ahead of price showing where the model expects the market to travel over roughly the next six months.
The next turn
The next projected peak or trough, with its expected date and price level, marked right on the chart.
The expected band
The range the swing should travel within. A projected peak rides the upper band; a projected trough rides the lower band.
The outer extreme
A wider band marking tail moves, so you know when price has stretched beyond the expected range.
From projection to decision
Net Bias: how much exposure to carry today
A projection is only useful if it changes what you do. Each morning, Net Bias combines the Kellan Projection with trend and volatility conditions into one call for the S&P 500: a stance and a position size, from fully in cash up to 1.6x, long-only. The terminal adds a plain-English morning brief and alerts when the stance flips or a projected turn approaches.
Walk-forward replay through June 1, 2026, live since June 2, 2026; before costs. Full record and methodology.
Markets covered
Not just the S&P 500
The projection loads automatically for twelve core markets and computes on demand for any liquid symbol with at least a year of history.
Equity indices
S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow, Russell 2000, semiconductors
Volatility
VIX
Commodities and FX
Gold, crude oil, the dollar, the euro
Rates and crypto
Long-term Treasuries (TLT), Bitcoin
Questions
Common questions about projecting the market
Can anyone predict where the S&P 500 is going?
No model knows the future, and the Kellan Projection is sometimes wrong. What it offers is a specific, forward-looking map (the likely path, the next projected turn and the range around it) that you can plan around and check against what actually happens, instead of reacting only to what price has already done.
How is the Kellan Projection different from moving averages or oscillators?
Moving averages, RSI and the stochastic oscillator summarize price that already printed. The Kellan Projection is drawn ahead of price, weeks to months into the future, with dated peak and trough targets. It is unrelated to the stochastic oscillator’s %K.
How do I use it for market timing?
Use the next projected turn to plan entries and exits, the expected band to set realistic targets, and the daily Net Bias call to decide how much exposure to carry. When the projection and Net Bias agree, conviction is higher; when they disagree, trade smaller.
W Analytics is a research and decision-support tool, not investment advice. Net Bias results before June 2, 2026 are a simulated walk-forward replay; all results are shown before costs, and past results don’t guarantee future performance. Projections can be wrong.