W Analytics track record
How the Net Bias call has performed
Net Bias has run live in the W Analytics Terminal since June 2, 2026. For the five years before that, we replayed every session back to June 1, 2021 as of that morning’s open. Compared with simply holding the S&P 500, its biggest advantage has been risk: more return for each unit of risk taken, and a much shallower worst drop.
Five years walk-forward tested. Live since June 2, 2026. Long-only, no look-ahead, before trading costs. How to read this record.
Total return, June 2021 – September 2026
+91.1% vs +82.8% for the S&P 500
$10,000 grew to $19,108
Return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio)
1.05 vs 0.79 for the S&P 500
32% higher
Worst drawdown
−15.2% vs −26.7% for the S&P 500
43% shallower
June 2021 – September 2026 ($10,000 grew to $19,108 vs $18,283 for the S&P 500), with 22% lower volatility and a higher annualized return (13.0% vs 12.0%).
Live since June 2, 2026
| 80 sessions, June 2 – September 25, 2026 | Net Bias | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Return | +3.3% | +1.5% |
| Worst drawdown | -4.2% | -4.2% |
| Average exposure | 1.12x | 1.00x |
These are the Net Bias signals the terminal published in real time, applied to the S&P 500 index. Four months is a short stretch, so treat it as a check that the live signal behaves like the replay, not as a forecast.
The full record
Over the full period, Net Bias earned 32% more return per unit of risk than the index, and its worst drop was 43% shallower, while still finishing slightly ahead.
| June 2021 – September 2026 | Net Bias | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| $10,000 grew to | $19,108 | $18,283 |
| Total return | +91.1% | +82.8% |
| Annualized return | 13.0% | 12.0% |
| Annualized volatility | 12.4% | 15.9% |
| Return per unit of risk (Sharpe, 0% cash rate) | 1.05 | 0.79 |
| Worst drawdown | -15.2% Mar 2023 | -26.7% Oct 2022 |
Year by year
| Year | Net Bias | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 (from Jun 1) | +12.2% | +13.3% | -1.2 pts |
| 2022 | -14.1% | -19.4% | +5.3 pts |
| 2023 | +19.8% | +23.1% | -3.3 pts |
| 2024 | +20.9% | +24.4% | -3.5 pts |
| 2025 | +21.5% | +16.5% | +5.0 pts |
| 2026 (to Sep 25) | +12.7% | +12.1% | +0.6 pts |
Net Bias trailed the index in 2021, 2023 and 2024. Those were steady up years, when holding a full position paid best. It lost less in 2022’s decline and led in 2025 and 2026 so far.
How the record is built
- As of each open. The Net Bias score and stance are computed only from data available before that session’s open, then held until the next open. Nothing from later in the day or later in history is used.
- Exposure, not direction. The stance sets a position between 0x and 1.6x the S&P 500, adjusted for trend and volatility conditions. There are no short positions.
- Returns before costs. Results are measured open to open on the S&P 500 index from a $10,000 start, with no trading costs, slippage, financing for exposure above 1x, dividends or taxes.
- Replay, then live. Sessions through June 1, 2026 are a walk-forward replay of the same rules. Since June 2, 2026, each session uses the signal the terminal published that morning.
- Every session counts. No days, trades or years are removed, including the ones where the strategy lagged.
What the record shows
The edge has come from sizing, not from predicting tomorrow’s direction. Average exposure was 0.78x the index, and the strategy sat fully in cash for 214 sessions (16%). A bearish stance means “take less risk,” not “the market will fall tomorrow.” The S&P 500 still rose on more than half of bearish-stance days, and the benefit came from being smaller when risk was elevated.
See today’s Net Bias read, stance and exposure in the terminal.
Start 30-day free trialHow to read this record
This record combines two kinds of evidence. The first is a five-year walk-forward replay. It runs the same rules session by session, using only what was known at each morning’s open, so each of the 1,256 sessions is scored the way it would have been called at the time. Nothing is left out. The second is a live track record: since June 2, 2026, the terminal has published the Net Bias call every morning, and those results are shown separately above so you can compare the two.
The replay is a simulation built after the fact, so the rules had the benefit of hindsight in their design. Both the replay and the live results apply the Net Bias call to the S&P 500 index rather than to a brokerage account. They are shown before trading costs, slippage, financing, dividends and taxes.
Past results, whether simulated or live, don’t guarantee future performance. The W Analytics Terminal is a research and decision-support tool, not personalized investment advice. Markets involve risk of loss.